ESTIMATION METHOD OF PRELIMINARY QUARTERLY GDP (QE)
(The 4th Edition)

July 2005

Dept. of National Accounts
Economic and Social Research Institute
Cabinet Office

CONTENTS (PDF-Format 487KB)

I. Concept of the estimation method of preliminary quarterly GDP (QE) (disclosed in August 2002)
II. Summary of the estimation method of preliminary quarterly GDP (QE)
      1. Method of estimating nominal value per demand component
      2. Method of converting into real values
      3. Published items
      4. Other characteristics
      5. Timing for QE publication
      6. New QE method: Covered period and related remarks
III.Method of supply-side estimation
IV. Method of estimating nominal value per demand component
      1. Private final consumption expenditure
      2. Private housing investment
      3. Private non-residential investment
      4. Private inventory increase
      5. Government final consumption expenditure
      6. Public fixed capital formation
      7. Public inventory increase
      8. Exports and imports
V. Method of converting into real values
VI. Method of estimating compensation of employees
VII. Method of seasonal adjustment

(Reference materials(PDF-Format 266KB))
Reference 1; Concept chart of supply-side estimates(annex: distribution channel of commodity-flow method)
Reference 2; Allocation ratio for each demand component (90 categories)
Reference 3; Value of weight k
Reference 4; Regression formula for estimating private inventory increase
Reference 5; List of ARIMA models used for seasonal adjustment
Reference 6; Integration of demand-side and supply-side estimates: Concepts
Reference 7; Main source statistics used for QE estimates

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