Tuesday, May 18, 2004
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2004
(FIRST PRELIMINARY)
1. Overview : GDP rose for eight consecutive quarters. In the first quarter 2004, 5.6% at an annual rate.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2004 was 1.4% (at an annual rate of 5.6%) higher than that in the previous quarter.
Nominal GDP was 0.8% (at an annual rate of 3.2%) higher than that in the previous quarter.
Note: Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted rates , unless otherwise specified.
2.Contributions
The change in domestic demand added 1.1 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP and the real change in net exports of goods and services added 0.3 percentage point to the same quarter change.
The change in domestic demand added 0.6 percentage point to the first-quarter change in nominal GDP and the nominal change in net exports of goods and services added 0.2 percentage point to the same quarter change.
3.Components
3.1 Private Demand
Private consumption (at constant price) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Private consumption (at current price) increased 0.7 percent, following an increase of 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.
Consumption of households (at constant price) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Consumption of households (at current price) increased 0.7 percent, following an increase of 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.
Consumption of households excluding imputed rent (at constant price) increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Consumption of households excluding imputed rent (at current price) increased 0.8 percent, following an increase of 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.
Private residential investment (at constant price) increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Private residential investment (at current price) increased 1.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.1 percent in the previous quarter.
Private non-residential investment (at constant price) increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Private non-residential investment (at current price) increased 1.8 percent, following an increase of 5.2 percent in the previous quarter.
The real change in private inventory added 0.2 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP.
The nominal change in private inventory added 0.2 percentage point to the first-quarter change in nominal GDP.
3.2 Public Demand
Government consumption (at constant price) in the first quarter increased 0.2 percent, following an increase of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Government consumption (at current price) decreased 0.7 percent, following a decrease of 0.9 percent in the previous quarter.
Public investment (at constant price) decreased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, following a decrease of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Public investment (at current price) decreased 3.1 percent, following a decrease of 1.7 percent in the previous quarter.
The real change in public inventory added 0.0 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP.
The nominal change in public inventory added 0.0 percentage point to the first-quarter change in nominal GDP.
3.3 Exports / Imports
Exports of goods and services (at constant price) increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Exports of goods and services (at current price) increased 3.1 percent, following an increase of 2.7 percent in the previous quarter.
Imports of goods and services (at constant price) increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Imports of goods and services (at current price) increased 2.1 percent, following an increase of 0.5 percent in the previous quarter.
4. Deflator
GDP deflator in the first quarter declined by 2.6 percent over the previous year, following a decline of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Domestic demand deflator in the first quarter declined by 2.5 percent over the previous year, following a decline of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Exports deflator in the first quarter declined by 4.4 percent over the previous year, following a decline of 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Imports deflator in the first quarter declined 4.4 percent over the previous year, following a decline of 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
5.GDP in FY 2003
In FY 2003, real GDP was 3.2 percent higher than that in the previous year. Nominal GDP was 0.7 percent higher than that in the previous year.
GDP deflator in FY 2003 declined by 2.4 percent over the previous year. Domestic demand deflator in FY 2003 declined by 2.2 percent over the previous year.
The change in domestic demand added 2.3 percentage points to the year change in real GDP and the real change in net exports of goods and services added 0.9 percentage point to the year change.
The change in domestic demand added 0.1 percentage points to the year change in nominal GDP and the nominal change in net exports of goods and services added 0.6 percentage point to the year change.
Note: All the preliminary figures are estimated by the new estimation method since the second quarter of 2002.