The provisional determination of Business-Cycle Peak and Trough

June 7, 2010

   Based upon the view of the Working Group of Indexes of Business Conditions, the ESRI has determined provisionally that a trough in business cycle occurred in the Japanese economy in March 2009.

The Reference Dates of Business Cycle

Peak (By Month)	Trough (By Month)	Peak (By Quarter)	Trough (By Quarter)
Jun. 1951	Oct. 1951	2Q 1951	4Q 1951
Jan. 1954	Nov. 1954	1Q 1954	4Q 1954
Jun. 1957	Jun. 1958	2Q 1957	2Q 1958
Dec. 1961	Oct. 1962	4Q 1961	4Q 1962
Oct. 1964	Oct. 1965	4Q 1964	4Q 1965
Jul. 1970	Dec. 1971	3Q 1970	4Q 1971
Nov. 1973	Mar. 1975	4Q 1973	1Q 1975
Jan. 1977	Oct. 1977	1Q 1977	4Q 1977
Feb. 1980	Feb. 1983	1Q 1980	1Q 1983
Jun. 1985	Nov. 1986	2Q 1985	4Q 1986
Feb. 1991	Oct. 1993	1Q 1991	4Q 1993
May. 1997	Jan. 1999	2Q 1997	1Q 1999
Nov. 2000	Jan. 2002	4Q 2000	1Q 2002
Oct. 2007 (provisional)	Mar. 2009 (provisional)	4Q 2007 (provisional)	1Q 2009 (provisional)

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