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The determination of Business-Cycle Peak and Trough

July 24, 2015

   In light of the discussion of the Committee for Business Cycle Indicators held on July 24th, 2015, the President of ESRI has determined that a peak in business activities occurred in the Japanese economy in March 2012 and a trough occurred in November 2012.

The Reference Dates of Business Cycle
Peak (By Month) Trough (By Month) Peak (By Quarter) Trough (By Quarter)
Jun. 1951 Oct. 1951 2Q 1951 4Q 1951
Jan. 1954 Nov. 1954 1Q 1954 4Q 1954
Jun. 1957 Jun. 1958 2Q 1957 2Q 1958
Dec. 1961 Oct. 1962 4Q 1961 4Q 1962
Oct. 1964 Oct. 1965 4Q 1964 4Q 1965
Jul. 1970 Dec. 1971 3Q 1970 4Q 1971
Nov. 1973 Mar. 1975 4Q 1973 1Q 1975
Jan. 1977 Oct. 1977 1Q 1977 4Q 1977
Feb. 1980 Feb. 1983 1Q 1980 1Q 1983
Jun. 1985 Nov. 1986 2Q 1985 4Q 1986
Feb. 1991 Oct. 1993 1Q 1991 4Q 1993
May. 1997 Jan. 1999 2Q 1997 1Q 1999
Nov. 2000 Jan. 2002 4Q 2000 1Q 2002
Feb. 2008 Mar. 2009 1Q 2008 1Q 2009
Mar. 2012 Nov. 2012 1Q 2012 4Q 2012

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Cabinet Office, Government of JapanEconomic and Social Research Institute
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