Explanation of Consumer Confidence Survey

1. Purpose of the survey

      The survey seeks to gain a quick understanding of shifts in consumer perception, expenditure plans on service, and the state of the possession and purchasing of principle consumer durables, as a tool in evaluating the direction of the economy.

2. Survey area

      34 million households in Japan, not including one-person households or foreigners.

3. Survey coverage

      5,040 households in 230 cities, towns and villages, sampled using a method designated by the prime minister (a three-level stratified random sampling of city/town/village, local unit, and household).

4. Timing of the Survey

      The survey is conducted on the 15th of June, September, December, and March of the subsequent fiscal year.

5. Survey organizations and system

      The prime minister is in charge, and delegates the conducting of the survey to the Shin Joho Center . The households to be surveyed are selected by the researchers, and the households themselves complete the survey.

6. Survey items

   (1) Consumer perception
   (2) The state of the purchasing and possession of principle consumer durables (research on possession of durables is conducted in March only)
   (3) Travel - journeys made or planned
   (4) Expenditure plan on services
   (5) State of the household

      The items below were revised from the June 2001 survey.

   1. The items covered in the state of purchasing and possession of durable goods category have been altered (four items removed, three added).
   2. The items in the state of replacement of durable goods have been altered (one removed and two added).
   3. The reply column for profession of the head of the household has been reduced from five categories to four ('part time farmers' and 'professional farmers' will now be called 'farmers').
       
7. Calculating the consumer confidence index
   

   (1) Consumer perceptions of the following five categories are surveyed: overall livelihood; income growth; prices; employment; willingness to buy durable goods.
      Respondents are asked to evaluate on a scale of one to five what they consider the prospects for the five subjects over the next six months.

   (2) Points are then allotted in accordance with the one-to-five scale for each category based on the anticipated effects on consumption. The consumer perception index is calculated by computing the weighted average of the points of the results (component ratio).

   Consumer perception index....

      The following evaluation points in the five response categories are multiplied by the component ratio(%) and totalized: positive responses (improve +1), (improve slightly +0.75); neutral response (no change +0.5); negative responses (worsen slightly+0.25), (worsen +0).

   (3) The consumer confidence index (seasonally unadjusted figure) is then calculated by simply averaging the five consumer perception indexes (seasonally unadjusted figures).

   (4) As both the consumer perception index and consumer confidence index are subject to seasonal adjustment, simple averaging of the seasonally-adjusted figure for consumer perception will not give the seasonally-adjusted figure for consumer confidence.

   Seasonal adjustments

Seasonal adjustments is made using the X-11 variant of the Census Bureau Method II.

   For further details

please contact the Department of Business Statistics, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office.