Explanation of One-person households
       Consumer Confidence Survey



  1. Purpose of the survey

       The survey seeks to gain a quick understanding of shifts in consumer perception amongst one-person households, service expenditure, and the state of the possession and purchasing of principle consumer durables, as a tool in evaluating the direction of the economy.

  2. Survey area

       The 10.7 million one-person households nationwide, excluding students.

  3. Survey coverage

       1,300 one-person households selected on a three-level stratified random sampling of city, town and village; local unit; and household.

  4. Timing of the Survey

       The first day of June, September, December, and March of the subsequent fiscal year.

  5. Survey organizations and system

       The prime minister is in charge, and delegates the conducting of the survey to the Shin Joho Center. The households to be surveyed are selected by the researchers, and the households themselves complete the survey.

  6. Survey items

    (1) Consumer perception
    (2) The state of the purchasing and possession of principle consumer durables (research on possession of durables is conducted in March only)
    (3) Travel - journeys made or planned
    (4) Expenditure plans on services, hobbies or leisure
    (5) State of the household (questions about the respondent)

       The items below were revised from the June 2001 survey.

    1. The items covered in the state of purchasing and possession of durables category have been altered (three items removed, two added).
    2. The items in the state of replacement of durable goods have been altered (one removed).
    3. The reply column for profession of the head of the household has been reduced from five categories to four ('part time farmers' and 'professional farmers' will now be called 'farmers').
       
  7. Calculating the consumer confidence index

    (1) Consumer perceptions of the following five categories are surveyed: overall livelihood; income growth; prices; employment; willingness to buy durable goods.
       Respondents are asked to evaluate on a scale of one to five what they consider the prospects for the five subjects over the next six months.

    (2) Points are then allotted in accordance with the one-to-five scale for each category based on the anticipated effects on consumption. The consumer perception index is calculated by computing the weighted average of the points of the results (component ratio).

    Consumer perception index....
       The following evaluation points in the five response categories are multiplied by the component ratio(%) and totalized: positive responses (improve +1), (improve slightly +0.75); neutral response (no change +0.5); negative responses (worsen slightly+0.25), (worsen +0).

    (3) The consumer confidence index (seasonally unadjusted figure) is then calculated by simply averaging the five consumer perception indexes (seasonally unadjusted figures).

   Seasonal adjustments
Seasonal adjustments is made using the X-11 variant of the Census Bureau Method II.



   For further details
please contact the Department of Business Statistics, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office.