Main Points of The New Estimation of Quarterly GDP (QE)

28 May 2002
Cabinet Office
Economic and Social Research Institute
Department of National Accounts

  1. Responding to the changes in the statistical environment
    Changes in the statistical environment:

    1. Enriched supply-side statistics, especially in the service sector
    2. Constraints on the demand-side estimation
      • Increased importance of consumer spending for those with rare intervals but large value, and individualization of household
      • Possible diversification in firm behaviour

      IMG

      More comprehensive estimation by taking count of wide range of supply-side statistics in addition to demand-side statistics

  2. Earlier estimation that would help timely policy decisions.

    The timing, now about two months and 7 days after the quarter, will become earlier by nearly a month, comparable to other developed countries.

  3. Improved Accuracy
    • Estimation consistent to that for annual accounts
    • Rate of increase over the previous quarter is given priority
      ( rate of increase over a year ago, under the present system )
    • Flexible revision and concurrent seasonal adjustment to represent recent trend
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