To research the state of the order books of machinery manufacturers, and to collect basic material for analyzing the direction of the economy through an early understanding of trends in capital investment in machinery.
280 Manufacturers in the major machinery sectors were selected to examine more than 80% coverage of the total sector when split into the major fields of industrial machinery indicated in Item 5 below. The data are, as of 1985; the survey of these 280 companies began in April, 1987.
Totals are the simple sum of reported figures, and not population estimates. The ratio of the amount of 'sales' in Orders Received for Machinery to the amount of the 'shipment' in Machinery Statistics(METI) is calculated to refer the total coverage. The ratio has recently hovered at appropximately 9to1.
(1) Value of orders received by type of machinery and user
The user are:
Private-sector(Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing)
Governments(Transport, Communications,
Ministry ofDefence,National Government,Local Governments and Others)
From overseas
Through agencies
Total
Types of machinery are coverd in
Item 5, below.
(2)Sales total and orders in hand by type of machinery
These are not surveyed by type of user.
(3) Chapter of table item in statistical table
Historical Data
Machinery Orders
by Sectors (seasonally adjusted and original series)
Reserved period (seasonally adjusted)
Machinery Orders
by Machinery Classification (original series)
Sales by
Machinery Classification (original series)
Orders in hand
by Machinery Classification (original series)
Tables by Sectors and Machinery Classification(original series)
Types of machinery are; engines and turbines,
heavy electrical machinery, electronic and communication equipment,
industrial machinery, machine tools, railway rolling stock, road
vehicles, aircraft, ships and watercrafts.There are sub types in engines
and turbines, heavy electrical machinery, electronic and communications
equipment and industrial machinery.
Parts, repair works, and related installation
works are included.
Steel structures, bearings, wires and cables are
also surveyed (these are not included in Machinery Orders by users).
The classification of machinery is broadly in
line with that of the Japan Standard Commodity Classification.
"Mobile phone" that had been included in "communication equipment" has excluded from this survey since April 2011.
For the purposes of the survey, users are defined
as those businesses that have outstanding orders (i.e. hold contracts)
directly with the manufacturers surveyed.
However, when agencies (including trading
houses), construction companies, and leasing businesses are involved,
the user shall be the party who will actually use the machinery. Or, if
the final consumer is unclear, the order will be regarded as arising
from an agency, construction company, or goods leasing business.
When the type of machinery is identified as being ultimately destined
for export, the machinery will be designated as "ordered from overseas,
" even if it is a re-order from a domestic business.
When the user is operating in two or more types
of business, they will be classified according to the type of business
conducted by the office ordering the machinery in question. In cases
where classification is difficult, they will be classified in accordance
with whatever their main line of business is.
The industrial classifications of users are broadly in
line with those of the Japan Standard Industrial Classification.
Figures in the survey do not include the consumption tax introduced on April 1, 1989.
Even if the contractor outsources or subcontracts
part of the order to a third party, the amount of the order will be
regarded as being wholly that of the contractor.
When orders reported are subject to cancellation,
price reduction, or increase, the value will be recalculated for the
month in which such alterations occurred. In the case of figures being
heavily downgraded, a minus sign (-) may be indicated.
To avoid duplication, orders have not been accounted for machinery that will be expended within the company as components(for instance, the engine of ship made by the shipbuilding company and it installs it in a ship). However, it includes machinery that will be used in-house as manufacturing facilities(for instance, the crane to make by the shipbuilding company and uses it) is accounted for.
Sales totals are in principal the reported sales
totals, but may also be the value of shipment or finished products.
Depending on the state of the surveyed companies,
the value of orders in hands may not necessarily match
the balance between the value of orders and sales totals.
The surveyed companies complete the survey forms by themselves. Distribution and collection of the survey forms are conducted by the Cabinet Office via post and online. The Cabinet Office also undertakes the checking and tabulation of the survey forms.
The values of these statistics are volatile. For example, order values are reported in monthly, even if they are very large and takes several months to build. Values sometimes decrease sharply month to month, it may sometimes take time to establish basic trend.
The relevance of orders for electric power and ships and watercrafts to the state of the economy is slim, the figures involved are large and erratic, and the gestation period tends to be long. They are regarded as being unsuitable in ascertaining the direction of autonomous capital investments over two or three quarterly financial periods. To redress this, a "private-sector machinery orders, excluding volatile ones for ships and electric power companies" category has been created. "ships" refers to machines, and "electric power" to users thereof.
While the seasonal adjustments in the survey are basically made using the Census Bureau methodX-11 of X-12-ARIMA (The lower and upper sigma limits used to downweigh extreme irregular values are 2.0 and 3.0, respectively. In other parameters, standard values are used.), the RegARIMA functions were examined, and applied for series excluding mobile phones.
The seasonal adjustments are revised annually in March and are the past value revised then. Until next February, seasonal adjustments are made by the prediction index.
The industrial classifications of users in the survey have been modified since the April 2011 publication. < Content of the modification >(PDF:90KB)