To research the state of the order books of machinery manufacturers, and to collect basic material for analyzing the direction of the economy through an early understanding of trends in capital investment in machinery.
280 Manufacturers in the major machinery sectors were selected to examine more than 80% coverage of the total sector when split into the major fields of industrial machinery indicated in Item 5 below. The data are, as of 1985; the survey of these 280 companies began in April, 1987.
Totals are the simple sum of reported figures, and not population estimates. The ratio of the amount of 'sales' in Orders Received for Machinery to the amount of the 'shipment' in Machinery Statistics(METI) is calculated to refer the total coverage.that ratio has recently hovered at appropximately 9to1.
(1) Value of orders received by type of machinery and user
The user are:
Private-sector(manufacturing,nonmanufacturing, and others)
Governments(Transport,Communications,Defence Agency,National Government,Local Governments and Others)
From overseas
Through agencies
Total
Types of machinery are coverd in Item 5, below.
(2) Orders in hand and sales total by type of machinery
these are not surveyed by type of user
(3) Chapter of table item in statistical table
Historical Data
Machinery Orders by Sectors, Sales and Remainders(seasonally adjusted,original series)
Reserved period(seasonally adjusted)
Machinery Orders by Machinery Classification(original Series)
Sales by Machinery Classification(original Series)
Orders in hand by Machinery Classification(original series)
Tables by type of machinery and user
Types of machinery are engines and turbines, heavy electrical machinery, electronic and communications equipment, industrial machinery, machine tools, railway rolling stock, road vehicles, aircraft, ships and watercrafts.There are sub types in engines and turbines, heavy electrical machinery, electronic and communications equipment and industrial machinery.
Parts, repair works, and related installation works are included.
Steel structures, bearings, wires and cables are also surveyed(these are not included in Machinery Orders by users).
The classification of machinery is broadly in line with that of the Japan Standard Commodity Classification.
For the purposes of the survey, users are defined as those businesses that have outstanding orders (i.e. hold contracts) directly with the manufacturers surveyed.
However, when agencies - including trading houses, construction companies, and leasing businesses - are involved, the user shall be the party who will actually use the machinery. Or, if the final consumer is unclear, the order will be regarded as arising from an agency, construction company, or leasing business (classified as other non-manufacturing entity). When the type of machinery is identified as being ultimately destined for export, the machinery will be designated as "ordered from overseas," even if it is a re-order from a domestic business.
When the user is operating in two or more types of business, they will be classified according to the type of business conducted by the office ordering the machinery in question. In cases where classification is difficult, they will be classified in accordance with whatever their main line of business is.
The industrial classifications are broadly in line with those of the Japan Standard Industrial Classification.
Figures in the survey do not include the consumption tax introduced on April 1, 1989.
Even if the contractor outsources or subcontracts part of the order to a third party, the amount of the order will be regarded as being wholly that of the contractor.
When orders reported are subject to cancellation, price reduction, or increase, the value will be recalculated for the month in which such alterations occurred. In the case of figures being heavily downgraded, a minus sign (-) may be indicated.
To avoid duplication, orders have not been accounted for machinery that will be expended within the company as components(for instance,the engine of ship made by the shipbuilding company and it installs it in a ship). However, it includes machinery that will be used in-house as manufacturing facilities(for instance,the crane to make by the shipbuilding company and uses it) is accounted for.
Sales totals are in principal the reported sales totals, but may also be the value of shipment or finished products.
Depending on the state of the various industries in the survey, the value of orders in hands may not necessarily match the balance between the value of orders and sales totals.
The businesses in the survey complete the survey forms themselves; distribution and collection is conducted by the Cabinet Office via post and online. The Cabinet Office also undertakes the checking and tabulation of the survey forms.
The values of these statistics are volatile. For example,order values are reported in monthly, even if they are very large and takes several months to build. Vales sometimes decrease sharply month to month, it may sometimes take time to establish basic trend.
The relevance of orders for electric power and ships and watercrafts to the state of the economy is slim, the figures involved are large and erratic, and the gestation period tends to be long. They are regarded as being unsuitable in ascertaining the direction of autonomous capital investments over two or three quarterly financial periods. To redress this, a "private-sector machinery orders, excluding volatile ones for ships and electric power companies" category has been created. "Ships" refers to machines, and "electric power" to users thereof.
The seasonal adjustments in the survey are made using the Census Bureau method(X-11 of X-12-ARIMA). The lower and upper sigma limits used to downweigh extreme irregular values are 2.0 and 3.0, respectively. In other parameters, standard values are used.
The seasonal adjustments are revised annually in March and are the past value revised then. Until next February, seasonal adjustments are made by the prediction index.
The industrial classifications of the survey have been modified since the April 2005 publication.<< Explanation >>