Economic Analysis Series No.197THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Exporters in China

By Keiko ITO, Tomohiko INUI, Hyeog Ug KWON and Yasuyuki TODO

Abstract

To understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and Chinese firms, it is important to ex-amine firms' export behaviors, in particular the role of foreign-owned firms in export. This paper investigates entries to and exits from export markets of Chinese firms and the relation between such behaviors and productivity improvement. Using firm-level panel data for China from 2000 to 2007, we find that a large number of Chinese firms including unproductive ones entered export markets, probably stimulated by the export boom in 2000s. However, many small exporters exited from export markets soon after their entry. Accordingly, export markets of China are going to be occupied by a small number of large firms.

JEL Classification Codes：F14, O14, O30
Keywords：Chinese firms, Export, Productivity, Panel data

How Can Japanese Extended Longevity Be Evaluated?
- An Estimate of a Fruit of Economic Growth -

By Masaaki KAWAGOE

Abstract

Substantial improvement in health conditions during 35 years from 1970 to 2005 has made Japan one of the top countries for longevity in the world, which is sometimes referred to as a fruit of economic growth (e.g. Yoshikawa (2003)). This paper tries to quantify value of the improvement by willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the mortality decline during the period, following Murphy and Topel (2003, 2006). Our results show the value may amount to165 trillion per year, about 30 per cent of GDP. An alternative assumption about consumption by the young and the elderly may increase the value by about 20 percent. Possible ranges of the value of WTP are also shown, depending on pa-rameters of utility function. Effects of demographic changes are examined: an increase in population and progress in ageing with fewer children increase the WTP by 30 and 20 trillion yen, respectively. Looking ahead, a limited additional increase in survival rates, and smaller population, are likely to cut the WTP to about 60 trillion yen in 2040. Furthermore, health expenditures required for extended longevity are estimated to be less than a tenth of the WTP. This is a very rough calculation as cost-benefit analysis because other expenditures (e.g. those related to improvements in public san-itation and diets) could be recognized as costs.

JEL Classification Codes: I10, D61
Keywords: Longevity, Willingness-to-pay (WTP), Health

Impacts of Social Capital on Regional Revitalization
-A Spatial Econometric Analysis Using Local Municiparity GIS Data-

By Katsuya TANAKA, Katsura NAKANO and Hiroya MICHIGAMI

Abstract

Anticipating the rapid population decline and aging society, possible measures for regional re-vitalizations (so called “chihou sousei”) have been actively discussed in Japan. Focusing on the role of social capital, we investigate how bridging social capital (number of nonprofit organizations per population) contributes to population migration and regional economy using the municipality-level cross section data in 2010. Considering potential spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) among municipalities, we develop three spatial Durbin models for two population indicators (numbers of population inflow and outflow) and an economic indicator (amount of taxable income per tax payer).

Our results show that bridging social capital contributes to promote both population inflow and regional economy. A positive and significant spatial autocorrelation is identified for bridging social capital in an economic model. Positive and significant spatial autocorrelation are also identified for all three dependent variables. From those results, we suggest that regional revitalization planning should be considered at a wider regional level rather than an individual municipality level, taking spatial dependence and spill-over effects among municipalities.

JEL Classification Codes: R11; R15; R58
Keywords: regional revitalization; social capital; spatial Durbin model

Does the Husband's Job Loss Decrease Childbirth?

By Kazuma SATO

This study examines the effect of the husband's job loss on childbirth by employing the retro-spective panel data built by the employment history of Keio Household Panel Survey. The following three points are clarified by the results of the fixed effect logit, random effect logit, and linear probability model. First, the estimated results indicated that the decrease in the probability of childbirth was observed at one year after the husband's job loss, which is caused by a considerable drop in the husband's income. In contrast, a persistent decrease in the probability of childbirth was not observed. Second, the estimated results indicated that the decrease in the probability of childbirth was observed only in cases in which the husband's educational qualification was low. This is because re-employment is difficult and the negative effect of the job loss snowballs in the case of the hus-band's low educational qualification. Third, the longer the husband remained unemployed after the job loss, the lower was the probability of childbirth.

JEL Classification Codes：J12,J13,J60
Keywords：Childbirth, Husband’s job loss, Retrospective panel data

The Effect of Marriage on Household Labor Supply

By Shiho YUKAWA

In this paper, I examine the effect of marriage on household labor supply, using Keio Household Panel Survey conducted by Panel Data Research Center at Keio University. As the result of the analysis, I found out that marriage has positive effect on male labor supply and negative effect on female labor supply even if we controlled time-invariant unobservable individual effects. Based on this result, I made analysis on difference in education level between husband and wife as a proxy for the comparative advantage in the job market to examine whether the change of working hours after marriage is consistent to household division of labor as theorized by Becker or not. The result shows that husbands with education level higher than their wives increase their working hours after mar-riage more than other couples but this difference isn’t statistically significant. On the other hand, wives with education level lower than their husbands decrease their working hours after marriage more than wives with education level equal to their husbands and this difference is statistically significant. Also, as the result of the analysis over the effect of difference in education level between husbands and wives on married men’s wives’ hours of works and working status, I found out that wives with education level lower than husbands have less working hours than those of wives with education level higher than their husbands. These results might show that the greater is difference of education level, the more are wives specialized in housework, which is consistent with Becker’s theory. Also, these results indicate that adjustment of household time allocation after marriage is mainly through wives’ change of time allocation.

JEL Classification Codes：J12, J22
Keywords：Marriage, Household Labor Supply, Household Division of Labor

ESRI International Conference 2017
“The Global Decline in Growth Rate and Possible Policy Responses”

Economic and Social Research Institute

Twin Survey on the Japanese Economy and Policy Effects:
Outline of the Survey and Report of Summary Statistics

By Masanori UMEDA, Takuma KAWAMOTO, and Masahiro HORI

To plan economic policies properly and to implement them effectively, efforts to form a con-sensus on the quantitative effects of such policies are necessary. For this purpose, it is useful to grasp differences in perceptions of the Japanese economy and policy effects (1) among the general public in Japan, (2) among economist, and (3) between the general public and economists.

In this paper, we provide an overview of a questionnaire survey conducted by ESRI in 2016-2017 of the general public and economists in Japan on the current situation of the Japanese economy and people’s perceptions of the effects of macroeconomic policies. We also present summary statistics of the results obtained.

While the findings from the survey are preliminary, they suggest that (1) the general public and economists often have quite different views about the Japanese economy and policy effects, and that (2) there are no systematic differences in views across different types of economists. In other words, there appears to be a broad “consensus” among economists in Japan, while the general public does not always agree with the economists’ views.

JEL Classification Codes: A11, E50, E60, H50, H60
Keywords: Japanese Economy, Macro-Economic Policy, Survey of Economists