Economic Analysis Series No.211THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Special Issue: Economic Analysis on Marriage Behavior

December, 2025

(Introduction) Introduction to the Economic Analysis on Marriage Behavior: Naohiro YASHIRO and Wataru SUZUKI
(Articles) On a Questionnaire Survey for the ESRI Economic Research Project on Declining Birthrate and Women's Empowerment: Wataru SUZUKI and Soichiro KOJIMA
Spouse Selection in Japan: How Realistic Are Spouse Selection Criteria in the Marriage Market?: Wataru SUZUKI and Naohiro YASHIRO
Conjoint Analysis of Marriage Support Measures for Singles: Hirohito HATANAKA, Naoki MOTOHASHI, Shingo NAKAZAWA and Wataru SUZUKI
Conjoint Analysis Using a Survey on Marriage Decision-Making by Married Individuals: Shingo NAKAZAWA, Naomi KODAMA and Wataru SUZUKI
Effects of Asymmetric Educational Attainment between Spouses in Marriage: Tomoe NAITO and Naohiro YASHIRO
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Temporary Cohabitation on Marriage: Tomoe NAITO and Naohiro YASHIRO
Impact of Work-Family Life Balance Support on Marriage Behavior: Tomoe NAITO, Hirohito HATANAKA and Miho TAKIZAWA
Impact of Uncertainty about Future Income and Employment on Marriage Decisions: Naoki MOTOHASHI and Wataru SUZUKI
The Effect of Behavioral Economic Factors on Marriage Timing in Japan: Wataru SUZUKI

The full text is written in Japanese.

(Abstract)

(Articles)
Spouse Selection in Japan: How Realistic Are Spouse Selection Criteria in the Marriage Market?

By Wataru SUZUKI and Naohiro YASHIRO

This paper quantitatively examines the matching of potential marriage partners and the occurrence of mismatches in the Japanese marriage market using a large-scale survey of singles conducted by the Cabinet Office. The survey asked respondents about six criteria for selecting a marriage partner: age, annual income, employment status, educational attainment, height, and body size.

We then calculate the rate of potential candidates meeting a respondent's criteria (match rate), the likelihood that a respondent meets the criteria of others (market desirability), and the probability that the criteria of both sides coincide (mutual match rate).

The analysis revealed that the mutual match rate in the Japanese marriage market is 3.8%, which is very low, while the mismatch rate is 42.0%. In addition, women have more bargaining power in the marriage market, with a 32.5% market desirability compared to a 13.3% match rate. Matching efficiency could improve if the Japanese government provided Japanese singles with this information on the Japanese marriage market.

JEL Classification Codes: D13, D91, J12
Keywords: marriage market, spouse choice, matching

Conjoint Analysis of Marriage Support Measures for Singles

By Hirohito HATANAKA, Naoki MOTOHASHI, Shingo NAKAZAWA and Wataru SUZUKI

This study employs conjoint analysis to examine how changes in income levels and various marriage support measures influence singles’ decision to marry. The findings indicate that annual income, child allowance, housing cost support, and marriage grants all increase the probability of singles choosing marriage, with housing cost support emerging as the most cost-effective support measure. Moreover, increases in annual income and the provision of support measures are particu-larly effective for individuals with higher income, regular employees, younger people, university graduates, those who live in non-metropolitan areas, and those with prior dating experience. The cost-effectiveness of housing cost support can be attributed to the fact that it is a continuous benefit, unlike a marriage grant, and that it is unrelated to having children, in contrast to child allowance. In addition to targeting groups for whom support is most effective, it is also important to take measures to create an environment that enables stable employment and adequate income, reduces living costs, encourages migration to rural areas, and provides opportunities for singles to meet potential partners.

JEL Classification Codes: D1, H2, H3
Keywords: marriage support, child allowance, housing cost support

Conjoint Analysis Using a Survey on Marriage Decision-Making by Married Individuals

By Shingo NAKAZAWA, Naomi KODAMA and Wataru SUZUKI

This study presents a conjoint analysis of married individuals to examine the factors influencing marriage decisions. We developed hypothetical scenarios to assess how a potential spouse's em-ployment status, educational background, attitudes toward participation in housework and childcare, and expected household income affect marriage choices.

The analysis revealed notable gender differences in the criteria for selecting a marriage partner. Women placed particular importance on the potential spouse being in full-time employment and on a stable household income, and were less likely to choose marriage if their spouse had a lower educational background than themselves. In contrast, men showed little interest in their spouse's employment type or educational background. For both men and women, however, the potential spouse's willingness to participate in housework and childcare was the most important factor in marriage selection.

Further analysis by educational background, housework ability, and age showed that women with higher levels of education placed even greater emphasis on their potential spouse's willingness to participate in housework and childcare. Moreover, men with higher housework ability tended to place more importance on their potential spouse's level of cooperation, while women under 35 in particular tended to place greater importance on participation in housework and childcare.

The novelty of this study lies in its focus on married individuals, who likely are more realistic in their responses to hypothetical scenarios than unmarried individuals. The study therefore, clarifies the real-world determinants of marriage choices that are difficult to determine in studies of un-married respondents. The findings suggested that in the marriage market, men's economic stability and both partners' willingness to participate in housework and childcare are key in addressing the declining birthrate going forward.

JEL Classification Codes: D13, J12
Keywords: marriage decision, declining fertility, conjoint analysis

Effects of Asymmetric Educational Attainment between Spouses in Marriage

By Tomoe NAITO and Naohiro YASHIRO

This study quantitatively explores the marriage matching of potential partners with asymmetric educational attainment in Japan. The conventional pattern in the past was that women would graduate from high school or junior college and were expected to marry college-educated men. However, even though the college enrollment rate of women has reached over 50% and is only slightly lower than that of men, women still prefer to marry men with a similar or higher level of educational attainment. As male college graduates place less emphasis on their partner's educational attainment, there is a shortage of men with a college degree, lowering the effective marriage rate and leading to a decline in the number of children. This strong preference of college-educated women for husbands with a college degree derives from the trade-off between raising children and pursuing a full-time job after marriage. If college-educated women cannot remain in full-time employment, they expect their husbands to earn a sufficient income. In other words, for women, the opportunity costs of marriage increase with income.

Against this background, the current study investigates the various factors that contribute to successful marriages between college-educated women and spouses with lower educational attain-ment using data from a large-scale survey of singles conducted by the Cabinet Office. The survey explored which compensatory factors women consider important when choosing a spouse with lower educational attainment. The analysis revealed two significant factors: a high income and strong housekeeping skills on the part of the husband.

JEL Classification Codes: D13, D91, J12
Keywords: low fertility, marriage market, asymmetric education between spouses, college enrollment rate

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Temporary Cohabitation on Marriage

By Tomoe NAITO and Naohiro YASHIRO

In Japan, only 2 percent of children are born to unmarried couples, and the declining number of marriages is a major contributor to the decreasing birthrate over time. One significant factor behind the decline in marriages is the increasing enrollment of women in higher education and their rising wages, which are now roughly equivalent to those of men in their 20s and 30s. As women's economic roles have changed, the opportunity costs of marriage have increased, leading women to spend more time searching for suitable partners, and raising the average age at first marriage. For women working full-time – like for their male counterparts – the most important determinant of their choice of spouse is the prospective husband’s willingness to cooperate in household tasks, including childcare. This is a major difference from traditional families, where a clear division of labor existed between spouses. Living together before marriage is one way to obtain detailed information about a spouse's qualities.

Such cohabitation has not been widely accepted in Japanese society, mainly because women have historically faced disadvantages if the relationship unwillingly ended. However, with the recent improvement in women's economic position, such cohabitation has become more beneficial for women, as it tends to ensure a more equal partnership within the family. In fact, a quarter of recently married couples cohabited prior to marriage. The empirical evidence obtained in this study provides support for the positive effects of cohabitation on marriage.

For this reason, if the government may well grant cohabiting couples a certain legal recognition and protection, this could potentially contribute to restoring the birth rate through increase in marriages.

JEL Classification Codes: D13, D91, J13
Keywords: declining birthrate, rising unmarried rate, marriage, educational disparity, cohabitation, PACS

Impact of Work-Family Life Balance Support on Marriage Behavior

By Tomoe NAITO, Hirohito HATANAKA and Miho TAKIZAWA

This study examines the impact of work-family life balance support on marriage behavior in Japan using 2024 survey data from the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office. Focusing on factors contributing to Japan's low birthrate, we conduct logit estimations and calculate the average treatment effect (ATT) among those receiving support using propensity score matching while accounting for workers spending long hours at the workplace. The results show that the probability of marriage tends to be higher among workers who spend long hours at the workplace. On the other hand, flexible work arrangements reduce the probability of marriage. This finding suggests that flexible work arrangements undermine the "positive externalities" of spending time at the workplace, such as meeting people and sharing experiences, are weakening. Next, turning to work-family life balance support, the provision of support at the workplace, especially childcare leave, is associated is associated with a higher probability of marriage, and this link is especially strong for men. This shows that not only is the view that ‘marriage = childbirth and child-rearing’ still strong in Japan but that men are also paying attention to childcare leave systems at work.

The findings suggest that, in designing future policies, it is necessary to take opportunities for workers to meet and share experiences – both inside and outside the workplace – into account in order to compensate for the weakening of the positive externalities of spending time at the work-place . Furthermore, childcare support for both men and women needs to be expanded. A com-prehensive approach is required to balance work style reforms and support measures that promote marriage while compensating for the negative impact on the positive externalities traditionally associated with spending time at the workplace.

JEL Classification Codes: J12, J13, J22, I31, I38
Keywords: marriage behavior, fertility decline, work environment, place to meet, work-family life balance support

Impact of Uncertainty about Future Income and Employment on Marriage Decisions

By Naoki MOTOHASHI and Wataru SUZUKI

This study examines the impact of uncertainty about future income and employment on marriage decisions using micro-data from a survey conducted by Cabinet Office in March 2024. The main feature of the study is that, unlike previous research, it uses future income and employment uncertainty as variables. The results show that (i) for both men and women, their willingness to marry is correlated with their risk of being unemployed five years ahead, while income uncertainty does not play a significant role. Moreover, (ii) for both men and women, the probability of unin-tentionally remaining unmarried is correlated with the risk of becoming unemployed and downside risk to income. We also examined the impact of these uncertainties on the preferred age of marriage, experience of marriage-related activities, and whether respondents have a dating partner. However, (i) the effects on the desired marriage age and the probability of having a dating partner were limited for men, while (ii) no significant effects were observed for women.

These findings empirically confirm that the willingness to marry at least to some extent is correlated with uncertainty regarding future employment and income. They therefore suggest that to increase the marriage rate, not only improving the current income environment but also reducing employment insecurity and sustainable income growth are necessary.

JEL Classification Codes: J12, D81
Keywords: Willingness to marry, Uncertainty, Marital behaviour

The Effect of Behavioral Economic Factors on Marriage Timing in Japan

By Wataru SUZUKI

This study examines the effects of behavioral economic factors such as risk aversion, the time discount rate, and hyperbolic discounting on the timing of marriage in Japan, using a questionnaire survey designed by the authors' research group and conducted in March 2024 by the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office. The findings are as follows. (1) For both men and women, the more risk-averse a person is, the later he or she marries. (2) For men, hyperbolic discounting accelerates marriage. On the other hand, (3) the time discount rate did not have a statistically significant effect on the timing of marriage. Using behavioral economic variables to identify risk groups and implementing targeted nudges could help to design effective policies to encourage marriage.

JEL Classification Codes: D03, J12, J18
Keywords: Marriage, risk aversion, time discount rate, hyperbolic discounting

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