ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.354 To Swing or Not to Swing? Reference Point and Professional Baseball Players

Does a batting average influence the decision whether or not to swing? We examine whether the decision whether to swing is influenced by a batting average by Japanese professional baseball players using the pitch-by-pitch data. We show that when the batting average is just 0.300, the probability to swing becomes significantly lower than when it is well above or below .300. The result suggests that a .300 batting average is considered as a reference point, which plays a central role in behavioral economics, for the professional baseball players and influences their attitudes toward risk.