ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.382 Analysis of Social Changes in Population and Fertility Rates

We conduct a panel data analysis by organizing data at the municipal level for Tokyo and seven neighboring prefectures over a 20-year period from 2000 to 2020. Controlling for region-specific differences, we clarify what factors influence fertility. As a result, we conclude that social growth has a positive impact on the fertility rate and that this trend is stronger in Tokyo and its suburbs. However, it was not clear whether this trend has become stronger in more recent years, partly due to the Novel Coronavirus. Since unobservable factors also affect fertility rates, and their effects are particularly large in Tokyo and its suburbs, the analysis is supported by a fixed-effects model that takes into account regional differences in fertility rates. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of regions with high social growth rates and high fertility rates, and it was confirmed that life satisfaction in both regions is relatively high and that life satisfaction improves after migration.